Sunday, February 16, 2014

2014 Projected 5x5 rankings for 1B and 3B

         Many of us know that the two corner infield spots can be gold mines for power stats.  The top tier of each position will provide their owner with a wealth of HR's and RBI's.  Many of these elite power hitters won't last too long in drafts, so I have a deep list of each position ranking them by their 5x5 numbers, which I went into on my first post.  In each of these table I added a few extra columns than I had for my catchers rankings.  I included their ADP (average draft position) which helps compare these players to where they are getting picked up on average. This adds an extra look at how players are projected to perform compared to where they are projected to get picked, this allows you to see if maybe you are reaching a bit on someone or if you can steal a sleeper.  Again these numbers are all projections, so if you don't believe that a player will hit as many home runs as projected, you can take that into account when looking at these rankings. 
        Another thing to keep in mind is the weights of each stat category.  I have done no weighting or handicapping for certain stats such as SB or HR. The reason why I have each stat as equal is because I am trying to make general lists that can be used by 5x5 league players.  5x5 leagues usually do not weigh stat categories and you are required to succeed in as many stats as you can.  So if you want to punt a stat and focus on players that will give you value in certain areas, then you may also want to keep that in mind when looking through these rankings.
      Remember these 5x5 scores change depending on what players you are comparing each of them too.  I realize these, along with my catchers list, are deep lists and many will not draft the lower guys.  I used a large sample size to get a nice spread along with catering to very deep leagues.  A different sample size would change the final 5x5 numbers for the players, but will generally keep the same rankings. 

Here are my rankings of 1B including ADP from http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php


Column1 1B ADP (1B) ADP (Overall) Runs HR RBI SB AVG Total(5x5)
1 Goldschmidt 1 3 1.84 1.545 1.527 3.835 0.972 9.719
2 Encarnacion 5 17 1.298 2.025 1.704 1.661 1.203 7.891
3 Davis 2 7 1.15 3.106 1.66 0.108 0.092 6.116
4 Hosmer 10 53 0.852 -0.135 0.993 2.903 1.296 5.909
5 Votto 4 16 1.744 0.465 1.171 1.04 1.481 5.901
6 Fielder 3 14 1.545 1.545 1.615 -0.512 1.527 5.72
7 Cuddyer 19 107 0.653 0.105 0.683 2.282 1.157 4.88
8 Freeman 6 24 1.248 0.705 1.304 -0.512 1.34 4.085
9 Lucroy 18 100 -0.139 -0.135 0.594 1.661 1.713 3.694
10 Rizzo 16 90 0.356 0.465 0.949 1.04 0.602 3.412
11 Pujols 7 45 0.752 0.465 0.46 0.419 1.157 3.253
12 Abreu 17 99 1.248 0.945 0.683 0.419 -0.185 3.11
13 Gonzalez 12 61 1.05 0.207 1.171 -0.512 0.972 2.888
14 Belt  24 139 0.554 -0.135 0.727 1.351 0.37 2.867
15 Trumbo 9 52 0.505 1.305 0.816 0.419 -0.509 2.536
16 Moss 23 138 0.802 1.425 0.505 0.419 -0.694 2.457
17 Posey 8 46 0.455 -0.135 0.771 -0.202 1.342 2.231
18 Santana 15 73 0.852 0.207 0.816 0.108 0.231 2.214
19 Craig 11 54 0.802 -0.255 0.683 -0.202 1.065 2.093
20 Hart 32 218 0.455 -0.015 0.149 0.419 0.463 1.471
21 Teixiera 29 185 0.752 0.705 0.46 -0.202 -0.833 0.882
22 Laroche 34 236 0.257 0.345 0.194 0.15 -0.185 0.761
23 Swisher 30 198 1 0.345 -0.072 -0.512 -0.092 0.669
24 Adams 21 133 0.306 0.825 0.327 -0.512 -0.324 0.622
25 Martinez 26 159 0.356 -0.855 0.549 -0.823 1.157 0.384
26 Alonso 43 341 -0.586 -1.095 -0.117 1.351 0.787 0.34
27 Napoli 25 144 0.703 0.705 0.505 -0.512 -1.065 0.336
28 Dunn 36 249 0.405 1.665 0.638 -0.512 -2.222 -0.026
29 Carter 28 180 0.604 1.065 0.283 -0.202 -1.898 -0.148
30 Morales 27 171 -0.04 0.105 0.238 -0.823 0.37 -0.15
31 I.Davis 47 353 0.058 0.105 -0.205 0.15 -0.787 -0.679
32 Johnson 35 242 -0.288 -0.615 0.416 -0.512 0.277 -0.722
33 Moreland 38 295 0.009 0.345 0.016 -0.823 -0.277 -0.73
34 Lind  37 251 -0.486 0.105 -0.161 -0.512 0.277 -0.777
35 Jones 48 388 -0.189 0.105 0.194 0.15 -1.25 -0.99
36 Morneau 33 228 -0.09 -0.495 -0.072 -0.823 0.416 -1.064
37 Howard 31 203 0.009 0.105 0.105 -0.823 -0.787 -1.391
38 Nava 45 345 0.108 -1.095 -0.827 -0.512 0.648 -1.678
39 Loney 42 325 -0.784 -1.095 -0.561 -0.202 0.833 -1.809
40 Smoak 49 404 -0.387 0.225 -0.339 -0.823 -0.555 -1.879
41 Reynolds 40 310 -0.387 -0.135 -0.827 -0.202 -1.574 -3.125
42 Guzman

-0.982 -1.095 -1.094 0.419 -0.555 -3.307
43 Morrison 51 424 -0.586 -0.855 -0.783 -0.823 -0.324 -3.371
44 Ruf 46 350 -0.784 -0.135 -0.96 -0.823 -0.926 -3.628
45 Konerko 41 320 -1.428 -1.215 -1.405 -0.823 1.111 -3.76
46 Sanchez

-1.379 -1.335 -1.538 -0.512 0.37 -4.394
47 Keppinger

-1.428 -1.816 -1.671 -0.823 0.879 -4.859
48 Carp

-1.875 -1.335 -1.494 -0.512 -0.185 -5.401
49 Duda 50 417 -1.379 -0.855 -1.449 -0.823 -0.926 -5.432
50 Wallace

-1.478 -0.855 -1.405 -0.512 -1.296 -5.546
51 Pena

-1.28 -1.215 -1.494 -0.512 -1.111 -5.612
52 Gillaspie

-1.627 -1.335 -1.627 -0.823 -0.324 -5.736
53 Blanks

-1.627 -1.456 -1.805 -0.512 -0.555 -5.955
54 Colabello

-1.776 -0.855 -1.538 -0.512 -1.527 -6.208
55 Francisco

-1.726 -0.735 -1.449 -0.823 -1.805 -6.538

Top 55 3B

 
Column1 3B ADP (3B) ADP (Overall) Runs HR RBI SB AVG Total(5x5)
1 Cabrera 1 2 2.397 2.924 2.439 -0.253 2.445 9.952
2 Wright 4 20 1.349 0.862 1.249 3.786 1.141 8.387
3 Encarnacion 3 17 1.531 2.466 2.099 1.093 1.141 8.33
4 Beltre 2 15 1.44 1.664 2.184 -0.792 2.445 6.941
5 Lawrie 16 152 0.711 0.06 0.824 2.17 1.087 4.852
6 Prado 12 119 1.212 -0.168 0.994 0.555 1.684 4.277
7 Longoria 5 21 1.44 1.664 1.504 -0.522 -0.108 3.978
8 Bogaerts 20 192 1.212 0.29 0.781 1.093 0.598 3.974
9 Carpenter 6 59 2.443 -0.397 0.313 -0.253 1.847 3.953
10 Donaldson 8 72 1.303 0.862 0.696 0.285 0.652 3.798
11 Zimmerman 7 67 1.212 0.977 0.441 0.285 0.543 3.458
12 Ramirez 17 156 0.756 0.633 1.164 -0.253 0.924 3.224
13 Seager 11 109 0.62 0.748 0.271 1.362 0 3.001
14 Middlebrooks 19 178 0.346 1.32 0.824 0.285 -0.326 2.449
15 Gyorko 10 108 0.62 1.32 0.824 -0.792 0.326 2.298
16 Alvarez 9 78 0.528 2.122 1.291 -0.522 -1.195 2.224
17 Frazier 22 209 0.665 0.748 0.866 0.285 -0.489 2.075
18 Arenado 21 201 0.209 -0.053 0.654 -0.522 1.195 1.483
19 Machado 13 132 0.711 -0.053 0.186 0.285 0.108 1.237
20 Nunez

0.61 -1.199 -0.876 2.17 0.434 1.139
21 Headley 14 143 0.346 0.06 0.271 1.362 -0.978 1.061
22 Iglesias 29 307 0.209 -0.97 0.143 0.824 0.706 0.912
23 Profar 18 177 0.301 -0.053 0.356 0.824 -0.598 0.83
24 Sandoval 15 148 0.437 0.175 0.569 -1.061 0.652 0.772
25 Rendon 25 253 0.574 -0.168 0.611 -0.522 0 0.495
26 Johnson 24 242 0.073 -0.053 0.866 -0.792 0.054 0.148
27 Plouffe 38 406 0.301 0.404 0.228 -0.522 -0.326 0.085
28 K.Johnson 27 292 -0.026 0.175 -0.196 1.362 -1.467 -0.152
29 Dominguez 23 229 -0.2 0.519 0.101 -1.061 -0.108 -0.749
30 Moustakas 35 343 -0.2 -0.053 0.186 -0.253 -0.598 -0.918
31 Callaspo 31 317 -0.519 -0.741 0.579 -0.792 0.489 -0.984
32 Davidson 39 421 -0.519 0.404 0.016 -0.253 -0.924 -1.276
33 Chisenhall

-0.519 -0.053 -0.324 -0.792 0.38 -1.308
34 LeMahieu 37 398 -1.294 -1.428 -1.174 1.093 1.032 -1.771
35 Asche 34 340 -0.337 0.06 -0.111 -0.522 -0.869 -1.779
36 Freese 26 285 -0.2 -0.512 -0.196 -0.792 -0.108 -1.808
37 Aviles 33 338 -0.838 -0.855 -1.046 0.554 0.217 -1.968
38 Reynolds 30 310 -0.018 0.404 -0.324 -0.522 -2.119 -2.579
39 M.Izturis

-0.793 -1.199 -0.961 0.285 -0.054 -2.722
40 Uribe

-0.519 -0.397 -0.694 0.016 -1.413 -3.007
41 McGehee

-0.656 -0.397 -0.536 -0.792 -0.869 -3.25
42 Valbuena

-0.884 -0.397 -0.749 -0.792 -0.543 -3.365
43 Murphy

-0.884 -0.053 -0.919 -0.522 -1.141 -3.519
44 Descalso

-0.793 -1.084 -0.919 0.285 -1.032 -3.543
45 Keppinger

-0.975 -1.199 -1.132 -1.061 0.761 -3.606
46 Ciriaco

-1.385 -1.313 -1.472 1.362 -0.978 -3.786
47 Santiago

-1.066 -1.313 -1.217 -0.792 0.543 -3.845
48 Franco 40 458 -1.34 -0.626 -1.259 -0.522 -0.326 -4.073
49 Forsythe

-1.34 -1.084 -1.472 0.016 -0.217 -4.097
50 Polanco

-0.747 -1.428 -1.175 -0.792 -0.434 -4.576
51 Bryant

-1.34 -0.626 -1.344 -0.522 -0.815 -4.647
52 Chavez

-1.34 -0.741 -1.217 -1.061 -0.326 -4.685
53 Gillaspie

-1.157 -0.741 -1.089 -1.061 -0.652 -4.7
54 Turner

-1.34 -1.313 -1.259 -0.792 0 -4.704
55 Francisco

-1.249 -0.168 -0.919 -1.061 -2.391 -5.788

These two tables show a little more info and can add a bit extra comparisons.  The lower tier players do not show ADP values because they were unavailable from the site I was using, but the bulk of the ADP values are present and add to the numbers I have calculated. 

I am working on setting up two more tables for 2B and SS and will most likely use a smaller sample size for these positions, while still providing a good look at how these players match up against the league.

The projected stats that I used to calculate each z-score can be found here, http://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/PlayerRankings.aspx?Position=1B and http://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/PlayerRankings.aspx?Position=3B